Labour’s “one in, one out” migrant returns deal with France — touted as a pragmatic alternative to the Rwanda deportation scheme — has plunged into political turmoil just days after its launch. Legal appeals, internal divisions, and mounting public backlash are threatening to unravel the policy before it gains traction.
The agreement, brokered between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, allows the UK to return small boat migrants to France in exchange for accepting asylum seekers with stronger claims. However, the treaty is set to expire in 11 months, raising concerns about its sustainability and strategic foresight.
Critics have labelled the deal “meagre” and “short-term,” warning it may collapse before the next peak migration season. With only 50 migrants per week expected to be returned, the policy addresses just a fraction of the more than 25,000 arrivals already recorded this year.
Legal advocacy groups have launched a wave of appeals against deportations, echoing the fierce resistance that plagued the previous government’s Rwanda plan. The Home Office has pledged to defend the policy in court, but insiders admit the department is overwhelmed by a backlog of asylum claims and lacks clear strategic direction.
Labour ministers are reportedly divided over the policy’s tone and effectiveness. Some regret their earlier criticism of the Rwanda scheme, now realizing the difficulty of securing removals under international law. Others fear Starmer’s tough rhetoric risks alienating progressive voters and playing into the hands of Reform UK.
Meanwhile, protests outside asylum hotels have intensified, with far-right groups threatening further unrest. A recent poll shows 40% of the public support these demonstrations, underscoring the volatile political climate.
Labour’s promise to end the use of asylum hotels by 2029 has already hit turbulence. Despite pledging to shut the Wethersfield RAF base, the Home Office is now expanding its capacity, prompting accusations of hypocrisy and policy chaos from Conservative MPs.
With legal appeals mounting, public opinion splintering, and the clock ticking on the Franco-British treaty, Labour faces a critical juncture. Will the government double down on its enforcement strategy, or pivot toward more sustainable and humane solutions?
As the appeals begin to flood the courts, the fate of Labour’s migration policy — and its broader credibility on immigration — hangs in the balance.
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